标题：美国城市房价与数量增长并非由供给约束所致：一项研究

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• Supply Constraints do not Explain House…

Supply Constraints do not Explain House Price and Quantity Growth Across U.S. Cities

Schuyler Louie, John A. Mondragon & Johannes Wieland Share X LinkedIn Email Working Paper 33576 DOI 10.3386/w33576 Issue Date March 2025

住房市场的一个标准观点认为，当地住房供给的灵活性（受地理和监管等因素的影响）会极大地影响房价、住房数量和人口对住房需求增长的反应。 然而，从 2000 年到 2020 年，我们发现，无论一个城市的住房供给弹性如何，更高的收入增长预测了房价、住房数量和人口的相同增长。 当我们将样本扩展到 1980 年到 2020 年，使用不同的弹性指标，以及当我们工具化本地住房需求时，我们发现了相同的模式。 使用一般的需求和供给框架，我们表明我们的研究结果表明，在解释美国城市房价上涨的差异时，受限的住房供应相对不重要。 这些结果挑战了当地住房和劳动力市场的普遍观点，并表明放宽住房供应限制可能不会产生预期的住房负担能力改善。

• Acknowledgements and Disclosures 此处的观点是作者的观点，不一定反映旧金山联邦储备银行或联邦储备系统的观点。 我们要感谢 Sajid Zaidi 的挑衅和 Rami Najjar 的出色研究协助。 感谢 Rebecca Diamond 的有益评论。 本文表达的观点是作者的观点，不一定反映 National Bureau of Economic Research 的观点。
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