飞碟：冷战的开端？（Flying Saucers: An Opening Salvo of the Cold War?）

James Carrionhttps://orcid.org/0009-0004-7592-6980查看更多作者信息

在线发布：2025年2月12日

摘要

1947年6月至7月，关于飞碟的耸人听闻的故事占据了美国报纸的头条。这些故事是否有可能被故意安排，作为美国战略欺骗行动的一部分，旨在破解苏联的外交密码？这个理论是基于一种被称为“园艺（gardening）”的密码分析方法，即植入特定的明文，以诱导加密通信，从而可以被拦截和分析。美国可能利用了苏联依赖美国媒体获取情报的习惯，植入耸人听闻的新闻故事——比如关于飞碟的那些——这些故事很可能通过加密的苏联渠道进行报道。这些在“Shamrock 行动（Operation Shamrock）”下被拦截的传输，随后可能被美国密码分析员用来重建苏联外交密码本，从而潜在地解释了“Venona 项目（Venona project）”的快速解密成功。虽然没有来自解密记录的直接证据证实这一理论，但本文使用人工智能驱动的数据分析来突出 1947 年飞碟文章中的异常现象，表明进一步的研究可以证实战略欺骗假设。

利益披露声明

作者未报告任何潜在的利益冲突。

注释

1 Kenneth Arnold 和 Raymond A. Palmer, The Coming of the Saucers (New York: Fawcett Publications, 1952), pp. 9–15. 2 U.S. Air Force, The Roswell Report: Fact versus Fiction in the New Mexico Desert (Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1994). 3 Andrew Hodges, “The Key to the Enigma,” Prologue Magazine , Vol. 29, No. 3 (1997). National Archives, https://www.archives.gov/files/publications/prologue/1997/fall/turing.pdf 4 Nigel West, Historical Dictionary of Naval Intelligence (London: Scarecrow Press, 1997), p. 116. 5 David Hamer 和 Geoff Sullivan, “Solving the Enigma: History of the Cryptanalytic Bombe” (Fort George G. 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Johnson, American Cryptology during the Cold War, 1945–1989, Book I: The Struggle for Centralization, 1945–1960, Series VI: The NSA Period (Washington, DC: National Security Agency Center for Cryptologic History, 1995), p. 29; James Bamford, Body of Secrets: Anatomy of the Ultra-Secret National Security Agency from the Cold War through the Dawn of a New Century (New York: Doubleday, 2001), pp. 436–438. 16 U.S. Senate Select Committee to Study Governmental Operations with Respect to Intelligence Activities, Supplementary Detailed Staff Reports on Intelligence Activities and the Rights of Americans, Book III, Final Report of the Select Committee to Study Governmental Operations (Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1976), pp. 765–777. 17 David Shayler 和 Ian A. Moule, Women in Space: Following Valentina (New York: Springer, 2005), p. 119; “Former Red Officer Sees War by 1950,” Chester Times , 21 December 1948; Stephen Dorril, MI6: Inside the Covert World of Her Majesty’s Secret Intelligence Service (New York: Free Press, 2000), p. 146. 18 Haynes 和 Klehr, Venona , pp. 25–28. 19 Ibid., p. 26. 20 Robert Louis Benson, “The Venona Story” (Fort Meade, MD: National Security Agency, Center for Cryptologic History, 2001), p. xv. 21 Ibid. 22 U.S. National Security Agency, “POLYGLOT,” DOCID 4110872, 20 September 2003, https://media.defense.gov/2024/Sep/20/2003550773/-1/-1/0/DOCID_4110872_SEALED_OK.PDF 23 Benson 和 Phillips, “History of Venona, Vol. II: KGB,” p. xxi. 24 Public Broadcasting System, “KGB: Active Measures,” https://www.pbs.org/redfiles/kgb/deep/kgb_deep_inter_frm.htm 25 Robert Louis Benson 和 Cecil J. Phillips, “History of Venona” (Fort George G. Meade, MD: Center for Cryptologic History, National Security Agency, 1995). 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James Carrion

James Carrion 是一位对冷战和情报历史感兴趣的独立研究员。 他拥有佛罗里达州立大学的国际研究硕士学位和俄语学士学位。 作为美国陆军的应征成员，他于 1983 年至 1989 年担任俄语语言学家和情报分析员。可以通过 james_carrion@hotmail.com 联系到作者。